For the first time in almost two decades, South Africans ushered in a New Year with a touch of hope and optimism. Not by any means a tidal wave, but the signs are unmistakable and encouraging.
An all-pervasive climate of gloom and doom has generally characterised the dawn of every new year. Now, however, something has shifted in the national psyche, in large part due to changes in the body politic.
The prime reason for the shift can arguably be attributed to the positive fruits flowing from the multi-party coalition presently constituting the government of South Africa. This represents the only notable difference between the dawn of 2026 and those that have gone before.
While this “national unity” government is viewed favourably by a good portion of the population and certainly the reason for hopeful sentiment, the ANC sees only a “strategic, temporary alliance” and doubles down on its worn-out revolutionary ideology. Bristling at the loss of absolute power and forced by circumstances into a coalition, it has recently, in a very important position paper, reiterated its consistent, unchanged commitment to socialist transformation.
Historical background
Let’s backtrack briefly to May 2024. For the first time since 1994’s Transition, elections in South Africa denied the ruling African National Congress (ANC), in power for thirty years, an absolute majority. It was a political earthquake, placing the country and its ruling elite at a major crossroads. Reduced to just 40% of the popular vote, the ANC faced a stark choice in its quest to form a government.
Baying on the Left were the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), a declared Marxist outfit and uMkhonto we Siswe (MK), an undeclared Marxist outfit. The ANC could have allied with these “progressive” forces to constitute what opposition parties billed a “doomsday coalition.” It is safe to say that, in the event of such a grouping, the country’s socio-economic collapse would have been swift and complete.
In the end, a coalition agreement was hammered out between ten parties, some one-man bands but most espousing free-market positions and centrist to center-right positions. Commanding the lion’s share of the opposition vote in the elections was the Democratic Alliance (DA). The latter was and remains the main face within the coalition espousing private property, free enterprise, the rule of law, Constitutionalism, etc.
Glimmers of hope
Fast forward eighteen months to the passing of 2025, and a different tune is playing. Headlines and articles like this one on IOL.co.za have become routine: “South Africans are weary, yet increasingly hopeful.” While pointing out stubbornly high unemployment, especially youth joblessness, persistently high crime figures, and lack of security, the article homes in on justification for seeing some light at the end of the tunnel. These would be the practical end to load-shedding and more significantly, “because the Government of National Unity (GNU), now in its second year, has delivered modest economic growth, a credit rating upgrade, and removal from the global financial grey list.”
Moneyweb reflected on the evolving climate with this assessment: “South Africa’s rand kicked off the new year by climbing to the strongest level since 2022, backed by upbeat South African trends, including continuing economic reforms and rising metals prices. The rand rose as much as 0.6% to R16.50 against the dollar on Friday [2nd Jan], outperforming most emerging-market peers.”
The insightful Moneyweb overview also showed how the rand had appreciated 14% in 2025, its best performance in over 15 years. It also reflected on the government’s (GNU) pursuit of economic reforms to generate growth. There has been much debate, too, on the South African Reserve Bank’s reduction of inflation targeting to 3%. This has been viewed as a fruit of increased economic confidence, which should lead to “lower inflation expectations with investors increasingly upbeat on policymakers’ ability to deliver price stability.”
In a similar vein, Netwerk24 was upbeat on passing into 2026. “The South African economy ended 2025 in a stronger and better position than a year ago. A number of positive changes in the last few months could be a turning point in the business cycle.” The same article quotes Professor Raymond Parsons’ evaluation that the South African economy enters 2026 on a note of “cautious optimism.” Parsons also noted other “positive” developments driving optimism. These included a favourable medium-term budgetary framework (MTBF), lower inflation and interest rates, and an upgrade by the investment house Standard & Poor’s.
The article noted that the “Government of national unity (GNU) wants to see GDP growth of at least 3.5% by 2030, driven by consumer spending and fixed investment.”
There is a general flow of “good news,” like Business Insider Africa’s reporting that “South Africa has been removed from the European Union’s list of high-risk jurisdictions, marking a significant milestone in the country’s efforts to restore confidence in its financial system and ease trade and investment flows with Europe.”
Would any of these hopeful pointers have been possible under an exclusive ANC-led government? History would suggest not!
However, despite South Africans’ capacity for adaptation, resilience, perseverance and blind hope, experience shows that “cautious optimism” is the ideal characterisation of current sentiment.
ANC’s 2025 National General Council (NGC) meeting
Shortly after the government hosted the G20 summit in Johannesburg and superbly showcased South Africa to the world, the ANC convened its National General Council (NGC). This is a five-yearly gathering where delegates assess the Party’s progress, discuss various challenges, review policy, and strategize.
One would imagine that, given the favorable climate permeating many sectors in the country, the ANC bigwigs would seek to recognize and understand from whence the “new winds” cometh, and somehow get excited about the encouraging possibilities aborning. But that would be simply too much to hope for.
An astonishing December 10 article in BizNews reveals all: “ANC brains trust rejects reforms, says GNU temporary pit-stop to make breathing space.” In a paper prepared for this gathering titled “State of the National Democratic Revolution,” some of the most ideologically rigid assertions are regurgitated. As the BizNews article astutely points out: “for the business community and investors currently enjoying the stability of the Government of National Unity (GNU), the 72-page document offers a sobering reality check.”
Worn-out clichés and tired socialist ideas
Clearly the ANC views the GNU “not as a permanent shift in governance, but as a “tactical cooperation” designed to buy time.”
While conceding that its record of governance is appalling, its conclusions are extraordinary. It’s basically “NO” to embracing the kind of reforms and mindset that have clearly triggered investor confidence and ignited enthusiasm for real change. The GNU is reduced to “a marriage of convenience,” a strategic necessity to gain time to re-establish political dominance and pursue once more the “National Democratic Revolution,” with its undisguised fascination for Statism a la Venezuela, Cuba, Russia, China, etc.
The main governing coalition partner (DA) is dismissed as wedded to a “neo-liberal, anti-transformation agenda” within a government representing the “unity and struggle of opposites.”
Almost two wasted decades have passed by. Stagnation, if not outright decline, is the order of the day in a country with unimaginable promise, but constantly flashing red. However, contrary to expectations, logic and common sense, the green light is avoided and rejected.
It is unbelievable, and the fruit of a dogged adherence to viewing the world, politics, and economics through a sixties Marxist prism—one that has cost South Africa so much goodwill, stifled so many hopes and aspirations, and stymied all notions of being the African Continent’s powerhouse and shining light.
Photo Credit: © shams Faraz Amir – stock.adobe.com